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Global Warmmongers Fail The White Swan Hypothesis

There was an absolutely excellent caller on Rush Limbaugh today, who took the time to explain how the Athropogenic Global Warming hoaxers are not participating in science at all. She took the time to explain the White Swan Hypothesis to Rush and his audience. Very enlightening. We need more and more people speaking out about this and exposing these hoaxers.

RUSH: To the phones. Knoxville, Tennessee, another geologist. Betsy, you’re on the EIB Network. Hello.

[ … ]

CALLER: I’m a geologist.

RUSH: You bet.

CALLER: A great day for geologists on your show.

RUSH: Add to it.

CALLER: Yes. I just wanted to talk to you a little bit about scientific method and how it works, and how it is that in science, hypotheses are formulated based on data, advanced and tested, and nothing is ever proven in science. Things are ruled out. Science operates by ruling possibilities out. And that which has not been ruled out by experiment remains possible. This is something that these guys have never bothered to do. They have never bothered to formulate any hypothesis at all and test it with a view toward ruling it out. And that’s what they need to do, and that is one of the basic reasons why what they’re trying to do is not scientific.

RUSH: Pure politics. In other words, what you’re saying is we know that warming and cooling cycles happen.

CALLER: That’s correct.

RUSH: We have to first find out which are natural, and then, by finding that out, then we might be able to find out if we’re contributing to it in addition to whatever is natural, right?

CALLER: Well, we might be able to find out whether we’re not contributing to it.

RUSH: Yeah, either way.

CALLER: Well, it’s not the same thing. My favorite example of what it is I’m driving at was advanced by the historian and philosopher of science Karl Popper some number of years ago, and he formulated a thought experiment which he described as the white swan hypothesis. And what you do is you look around and you see a lot of white swans everywhere, and you come up with a notion that all swans are white. Now, how do you go about testing this hypothesis? You don’t go around counting white swans. Because no matter how many white swans you count, there may be somewhere lurking a black swan that you didn’t encounter. And so what you have to do is mount a search for the single black swan and try to disprove your hypothesis based upon evidence.

RUSH: And so these guys are not doing that at all.

CALLER: No! No. They’ve come up with the idea that CO2 causes global warming and you can read the press releases and you can read the news stories, and they go around counting, “Well, look, CO2 predicts this, and CO2 predicts that, and CO2 predict this other over there, and so it must be true.” And so what they’re doing is mounting a search for white swans. They’re not trying to rule their own hypothesis out. And that’s the only way science ever advances.

RUSH: Well, at this point, I think these e-mails indicate they know their hypotheses are already ruled out because they’re making things up.

CALLER: Exactly. Absolutely. And I have been saying that for some time ever since the data began to come in and we began to see that the last decade has shown cooling. Every hypothesis they have ever advanced has been ruled out by that finding.

RUSH: Right. And of course the sun has nothing to do with it. They also do not factor the sun at all. And they don’t factor —


RUSH: — they don’t factor precipitation.

CALLER: No. And there are glacial cycles and Milankovitch cycles, there are lots of other possibilities, none of which they have ever attempted to address and try to rule out, which is what they have to do in order for it to be called science.

RUSH: Well, here we have another scientist, in the opinion of Robert Gibbs and the White House, you’re nothing more than a Macaca.

CALLER: (laughing) Well, we have words for him, too.

RUSH: (laughing) So how about that consensus of science? Am I right when I say there can be no science if all you have is a consensus of scientists?

CALLER: Well, actually I have to take a little bit of issue with you over that.

RUSH: No! No, no!

CALLER: It’s true, science is not about consensus, and we don’t take a vote to figure out what is correct.

RUSH: Okay.

CALLER: Our natural world —

RUSH: I’m right, then. We have to go to a break.

CALLER: However, what we do have in many different areas of science is a consensus of scientists that is based upon elimination of all known competing hypotheses. For example, the theory of relativity. Now, we don’t regard it as proven but we know that there is no longer a serious competitor which has not been ruled out by evidence. So to the extent that we can have a consequences in science. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s not open to challenge and it doesn’t mean that it’s final, but there are agreements among scientists which, for example, another example is the theory of global plate tectonics. Now, you won’t find a great deal of serious disagreement amongst reputable geologists that that is the mechanism by which we see continents form and seabed disappearance and so forth. But that’s not because we regard that hypothesis as proven. We have ruled out the competition.

RUSH: Got it.

CALLER: Somebody may yet come forward someday.

RUSH: This has been enlightening. I can’t tell you how glad I am you called, Betsy. I’m out of time. I wish I had a couple more segments, but I don’t. Snerdley, see if she will give us her phone number so that we may consult her in the future should we have need to.


November 30, 2009 , 10:56PM - Posted by | Communism, Fascism, Global Warming, Liberalism, Rush Limbaugh, Socialism

1 Comment

  1. […] that AGW is moreso a religion than science and hitting on the White Swan Hypothesis idea discussed here. I was having a discussion with a non-religious friend of mine not long ago, and he asked me how I […]

    Pingback by What Scientists, Baseball Players and Muslims Have in Common « AmeriCAN-DO Attitude | November 30, 2009 , 11:42PM

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